La Niña and warmer-than-average ocean temperatures are expected to drive increased tropical activity in the upcoming hurricane season, according to NOAA’s National Weather Service forecasters at the Climate Prediction Center.
The 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, which spans from June 1 to November 30, has an 85% chance of being above normal, a 10% chance of being near normal, and a 5% chance of being below normal.
NOAA forecasts a range of 17 to 25 total named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), with 8 to 13 of these becoming hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including 4 to 7 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4, or 5 with winds of 111 mph or higher). Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges.
Several factors contribute to the predicted above-normal activity. Near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, the development of La Niña conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds, and decreased wind shear all favor tropical storm formation.
“With another active hurricane season approaching, NOAA’s commitment to keeping every American informed with life-saving information is unwavering,” said NOAA Administrator Rick Spinrad, Ph.D.
“AI-enabled language translations and a new depiction of inland wind threats in the forecast cone are just two examples of the proactive steps our agency is taking to meet our mission of saving lives and protecting property.”
“Severe weather and emergencies can happen at any moment, which is why individuals and communities need to be prepared today,” said FEMA Deputy Administrator Erik A. Hooks.
“Already, we are seeing storms move across the country that can bring additional hazards like tornadoes, flooding, and hail. Taking a proactive approach to our increasingly challenging climate landscape today can make a difference in how people can recover tomorrow.”
NOAA scientists also point out that as one of the strongest El Niños ever observed ends, a quick transition to La Niña conditions is expected. La Niña typically reduces wind shear in the tropics, which is conducive to hurricane activity. Additionally, abundant oceanic heat content in the tropical Atlantic Ocean and Caribbean Sea provides more energy for storm development.
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) will be able to issue U.S. tropical cyclone watches and warnings with regular or intermediate public advisories, providing timely updates as needed.
NOAA’s Weather Prediction Center, in partnership with the NHC, will issue an experimental rainfall graphic for the Caribbean and Central America during the 2024 hurricane season, providing forecast rainfall totals associated with a tropical cyclone or disturbance.
The Climate Prediction Center will update the 2024 Atlantic seasonal outlook in early August, before the historical peak of the season.